Russia is running short of precision missiles in its war against Ukraine and its arms factories lack the ability to produce enough to keep up with demand, western officials have said.
Limitations in Russia’s arms supply industry and the impact of western sanctions mean Moscow is having to transport missiles from other parts of the country to Ukraine, the officials said on Friday.
“Their stock is limited, it is being run down, and we are seeing them having to move Kalibr missiles from other strategic directions where they may be stored,” said one western official, referring to sea-launched cruise missiles. “That brings you some indications that their stock of precision weapons is being reduced.”
The assessment comes as the US and its European allies ramp up efforts to arm Kyiv and are girding for a protracted conflict, with the Biden administration looking to send $33bn more in military, economic and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
It also comes as the Kremlin continues to struggle on the ground in Ukraine, with the Pentagon saying it believes Russia is at least several days behind its goal to encircle Ukrainian forces in the Donbas.
“We believe that they meant to be much further along in terms of a total encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the east and they have not been able to link north with south,” said a senior US defence official. “In fact they’re nowhere close to linking north with south as the Ukrainians continue to fight back.”
Most Russian strikes are concentrated in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine and the coastal city of Mariupol, the US official said, adding that most of the ordinance is “dumb ordinance, not precision-guided”.
“We think that speaks to challenges that the Russians are having with [precision-guided munitions] replenishment,” the US official said.
The western official said Russia’s difficulties in resupplying guided weaponry has been caused both by the “quality of their industrial base”, but also by western sanctions that are “limiting their ability to generate more capability in the time that it would be needed to have an effect on the battlefield”.
Russian progress in the Donbas has been “slow and uneven”, as its forces meet stiff Ukrainian resistance and try to learn from past mistakes, the US official said. They have made limited advances to the south-east and south-west of Izyum and toward the towns of Slovyansk and Barvinkove.
The US believes Russia is trying to move forces north out of Mariupol, but progress there has also been slow, the US official added.
Elsewhere, Russian forces have targeted central and western Ukraine with bombardment to try to prevent Ukraine from replenishing and reinforcing their troops in the south and east, the official said.
Recent strikes in Kyiv were meant to target military production capabilities and attacks that hit residential areas “may have been misses”, the official said.
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EY: a Management Consultant’s PowerPoint Guide to Splitting Up
EY is hatching a pioneering split of its audit and advisory operations. It is a U-turn but a welcome one that — if it materialises — may set a template for its fellow Big Four audit firms. Presumably EY will start, as must all management consultants worth their salt, with a PowerPoint presentation. Lex previews the slide deck.
Slide 1: Venn diagram. EY’s global workforce of 312,000 does not coalesce into two buckets of audit and consultancy. In the middle sit a whole slew of bodies whose function serves both arms: in tax, pensions, IT, cyber security, industry expertise and other skill sets. Putting a line down the middle and sending half into the audit arm and the remainder into consultancy will not fly. Creating a third arm, which both sets can tap, seems messy.
Slide 2: Metaverse-mapped 3D flow chart (VR goggles provided). Take 140 countries, with — conservatively — twice that number of interested regulators and as many different legal structures. Add 13,000 partners, all of whom will have their own vested interests in terms of ring fencing liabilities and tapping income flows. They hold far more muscle than would be the case in your average public company: directors are replaceable, partners are the business.
Slide 3: Scatter plot chart. Severing ties with audit eliminates conflicts and thus widens the field of tech players EY can team up with to service clients. But that leaves it competing with the big integrated tech-savvy companies such as France’s Capgemini and Intel, Cognizant and Accenture (which has a two-decade head-start in going it alone) in the US.
Slide 4: Winners and losers. Slipped in at the end, because there will be many. In some ways Big Four firms resemble McDonald’s, or any other franchise. The local rainmakers draw in the business and a portion of fees go out for the name over the shopfront and technology. Asymmetric fiefdoms inevitably mean some partners have more to lose than others.
Tombstone: RIP the partnership model. It will take some fiendishly clever footwork to avoid tearing up the structure that has underpinned the industry through history. Client work is a doddle compared with this one.
Original Source: ft.com
EY Explores IPO or Partial Sale of Global Advisory Business
EY is exploring a public listing or partial sale of its global advisory business as part of the most radical transformation of a Big Four accountancy firm in two decades, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter.
A stake sale or listing would raise the prospect of a massive windfall for EY’s existing partners who own and run the firm, reminiscent of the IPOs of Goldman Sachs in 1999 and Accenture in 2001.
The 312,000-strong firm, which along with Deloitte, KPMG and PwC dominates the accounting industry, is considering a historic break-up of its business as a solution to the conflicts of interest that have dogged the profession and attracted regulatory scrutiny.
EY’s advisory businesses, which offer tax, consulting and deals advice, generated revenues of $26bn last year and employ 166,000 advisers.
EY’s audit business, which generated revenues of $14bn last year, is likely to remain as a partnership following any break-up. Some advisers would shift to the audit side to support its work in areas such as tax, said people with knowledge of the details.
The newly independent advisory business would have the option of incorporating as a company, allowing it to take on external funding through a sale or IPO. Fresh investment could help it to boost growth and compete with larger consulting businesses such as Accenture, which reported revenues of $51bn last year and is valued at about $200bn on the New York Stock Exchange.
A break-up would also free EY’s advisory business to win work from companies audited by EY, opening up a swath of potential new clients that are currently off-limits under independence rules.
EY was being advised on its planning by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, people with knowledge of the matter said. The banks declined to comment.
The firm’s senior partners have yet to make a firm proposal to partners on whether to proceed with a restructuring and exactly what form it should take.
The sale of part of the business to external shareholders would be a radical departure. A senior partner at another firm said that selling parts of the business and handing the windfall to partners would significantly alter the existing structure where “you come in naked and you leave naked” with the business’s capital preserved for the next generation.
The Big Four are structured as networks of legally separate national member firms that pay a fee each year for shared branding, systems and technology. The set-up has prevented them from taking on external investment and made it difficult to push through radical overhauls, which require a broad consensus across the business.
However, EY is seen by many accountants as being best placed among the Big Four to push through significant international changes because its global bosses have greater influence than at competitors, where rank-and-file partners have more power.
Partners at EY will nonetheless have the opportunity to vote on any changes. Asked whether EY might line up investors before a ballot, a person with knowledge of the matter said: “We’re looking through those options. We’ll be looking to see what’s in the right interests of all the partners.”
EY and other professional services firms have “the doorbell ringing all the time” from private equity firms seeking to invest in parts of their business, said this person. An IPO would be more difficult to pull off than a private stake sale, the person added.
A split by EY would force its rivals to decide whether to follow suit. On Friday, PwC and KPMG both said they believed in the benefits of having their audit and consulting businesses under one roof.
PwC said it had “no plans to change course”. KPMG said a multidisciplinary model “brings a range of benefits”. Deloitte did not comment.
A break-up would probably attract dissent from some partners. Auditing has historically had lower profit margins and could struggle to recruit and retain staff, especially expert partners who make most of their money from consulting but provide crucial expertise in areas such as tax, said Big Four partners.
EY declined to comment on the possibility of a stake sale or an IPO. After news of its break-up planning on Thursday, global chief executive Carmine Di Sibio told staff in an email on Friday that “no . . . decisions have been made”.
Original Post: ft.com
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